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the elections in hungary are over, so here's what i intuitively felt:

there will be no clear winner. neither orban nor magyar will lead with a majority of 100 mps.the difference between fidesz and tisza seems to be around 10-20 mps; my angels suggested that the difference between them is 15 mps, so fidesz has around 90-95 mps and tisza has 75-80;the democratic coalition could lose mps, i see them with 10-12. the rest are taken by mi hazánk, i feel a jump in their results.i see a pyrrhic victory for orban, but tisza are closely behind them. unfortunately, the campaign of both parties was not enough for a clear victory.

therefore, the solution is most likely a coalition. the problem is this - i have a feeling that mi hazánk would not govern with orban (they are in esn, why am i pretending to be surprised..). dk (the democratic coalition) would, but no matter how many mps they have, it won't be enough for a majority of 100 mps. but tbh, 100 mps sounds unconvincing, let me write 105-110 mps, considering how the former bulgarian government "zhelyazkov" started and overall went...

it turns out that the "bulgarian scenario", as i constantly nag to everything (i.e. not elections after elections, as i thought before, but political instability in general) is present in hungary. i don't know what their constitution is for a caretaker government and how it is processed, but congratulations to the citizens of the eu (not europe, the eu. there's a difference). the bulgarian scenario is also in the supposedly safest place, i.e. hungary.

i might do an analysis of the elections in bulgaria. i'm not convinced yet of what i see, so i'll need to throw cards there.

edit congrats to tisza! ... and good luck with their intentions. they'll need it.

for once my angels were WRONG (the counting's almost done anyways so why bother, i added the X tag! now i won't stop nagging my angles with how wrong they were this time😍)

the elections in hungary are over, so here's what i intuitively felt:

therefore, the solution is most likely a coalition. the problem is this - i have a feeling that mi hazánk would not govern with orban (they are in esn, why am i pretending to be surprised..). dk (the democratic coalition) would, but no matter how many mps they have, it won't be enough for a majority of 100 mps. but tbh, 100 mps sounds unconvincing, let me write 105-110 mps, considering how the former bulgarian government "zhelyazkov" started and overall went...

it turns out that the "bulgarian scenario", as i constantly nag to everything (i.e. not elections after elections, as i thought before, but political instability in general) is present in hungary. i don't know what their constitution is for a caretaker government and how it is processed, but congratulations to the citizens of the eu (not europe, the eu. there's a difference). the bulgarian scenario is also in the supposedly safest place, i.e. hungary.

i might do an analysis of the elections in bulgaria. i'm not convinced yet of what i see, so i'll need to throw cards there.

 congrats to tisza! ... and good luck with their intentions. they'll need it.

for once my angels were WRONG (the counting's almost done anyways so why bother, i added the X tag! now i won't stop nagging my angles with how wrong they were this time😍)

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exit-analysis (intuition-wise), hungary elections (2026)

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